Michael Lewis’s fascinating page-turner, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine takes us through the Subprime mortgage market through the eyes of the cast of characters who not only saw the coming crisis but bet heavily on the catastrophe, and won big.
What’s interesting about the cast of characters is their contrarian view on the financial crisis, events that shaped their worldview, and holding on and increasing their bets while under tremendous pressure, in some cases, from their own investors.
Lewis focuses largely on four groups, and among them mostly on Steve Eisman, Dr. Michael Burry, Greg Lippmann and Charlie Ledley:
• Frontline Partners (Steve Eisman, Vincent Daniel, Danny Moses, Porter Collins), Ivy Zelman and Wing Chau
• Scion Capital (Michael Burry, Steve Druskin), Joel Greenblatt and Kip Oberting
• Formerly of Deutsche Bank (Greg Lippmann & Eugene Xu)
• Cornwall Capital (Charlie Ledley, Ben Hockett, Jamie Mai) and David Burt
The book starts with Eisman, moves on to Burry, Lippmann, Ledley and how they go about learning more about the Subprime market, various interactions with Wall St. Banks, AIG, how the protagonists put together the pieces of the puzzle, and finally culminates with Howie Huber losing billions and the financial crisis of 2008.
My favorite quotes from the book:
“The original cast of subprime financiers had been sunk by the small fraction of the loans they made that they had kept on their books. The market might have learned a simple lesson: Don’t make loans to people who can’t repay them. Instead it learned a complicated one: You can keep on making these loans, just don’t keep them on your books. Make the loans, then sell them off to the fixed income departments of big wall street investment banks, which will in turn package them into bonds and sell them to investors.”
“It was as if you could buy flood insurance on the house in the valley for the same price as flood insurance on the house on the mountaintop.”
Steve Eisman:
“How do you make poor people feel wealthy when wages are stagnant? You give them cheap loans.”
“I now realized there was an entire industry, called consumer finance, that basically existed to rip people off.”
Dr. Michael Burry:
“The more he studied Buffett, the less he thought Buffett could be copied; indeed, the lesson of Buffett was: To succeed in a spectacular fashion you had to be spectacularly unusual. “If you are going to be a great investor, you have to fit the style to who you are.”"
“Real risk was not volatility; real risk was stupid investment decisions.”
“Ick investing means taking a special analytical interest in stocks that inspire a first reaction of ‘ick’”
If you liked this post, you might like Daily Links #171 (Michael Burry edition).